Efficient and Equitable E-Motorbike Transition in Vietnam: Evidence from Surveys, NLP, and DiD

Ho Chi Minh City aims to facilitate the transition of 400,000 delivery riders to electric motorbikes by 2028. This project will determine which policy measures on subsidies, charging infrastructure, and financing mechanisms most effectively enable this transition. The study applies several analytical approaches: (1) monitoring air quality data to track emission trends, (2) conducting rider and resident surveys to assess costs, experiences, and local impacts, (3) analyzing public information from news and social media to examine community responses, and (4) comparing neighborhoods with differing policy implementation to evaluate outcomes. The findings will inform equitable and efficient strategies for healthier and more sustainable livelihoods.

Aim 1: Establish environmental baselines
Develop CO₂e and PM2.5 projection trajectories to serve as reference points for assessing how policy choices influence emissions and air quality.

Aim 2: Measure adoption dynamics and lived experiences
Conduct structured surveys of riders and residents to understand how electrification affects delivery productivity, affordability, credit access, charging availability, exposure, neighborhood air quality, and delivery reliability. The surveys will also test behavioral responses to different policy and market scenarios.

Aim 3: Monitor market signals and public sentiment
Apply NLP to digital data sources to track trends in prices, charging infrastructure, adoption barriers, and public attitudes, producing high-frequency indicators that complement survey-based insights.

Aim 4: Evaluate policy and macroeconomic impacts
Use a DiD and DDD framework, exploiting ward-level rollout variation and border counterfactuals, to estimate the effects of policies on adoption, costs, delivery reliability, and perceived health outcomes, and to link micro-level impacts with citywide fiscal and growth dynamics.

Aim 5: Translate evidence into policy and practice
Produce policy briefs and organize stakeholder workshops to disseminate findings and support evidence-based policy design and implementation.